MODELLING OF THE MEDICINES MARKET DYNAMICS ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE DRUG FOR VARICOSIS
Abstract
The current state of the economy, which is characterized by dynamism, a high degree of environmental uncertainty, significant technological transformations, requires a quantitative assessment of the development of socio-economic processes. In such conditions, marketing activities aimed at achieving the goals of the enterprise and meeting the needs of consumers, usually based on the study of markets for individual products, identifying prevailing trends, developing marketing strategies. The ability to predict future prospects increases the success of marketing activities of any enterprise. Therefore, forecasting sales of a product is always a pressing issue. Solving the problem of forecasting plays a crucial role in the processes of both strategic planning and operational management in various fields of science and technology. To ensure competitiveness, domestic analysts use various economic and mathematical methods and models that allow forecasting economic and financial performance of the enterprise, optimize the management system and more. The scientific article considers the process of analysis and econometric modeling for sales of the varicose veins drug (to make this research as objective as possible, the name of the studied drug is conditional – "Veiner"). Correlation-regression and factor analysis of factors that have a direct impact on drug sales is performed. The influence of each factor on the studied variable is estimated and the time series is modeled. In addition, a detailed analysis of the studied indicator (sales of the drug in pieces for three full years) was performed using the autocorrelation function and also the method of the first differences to determine the nature of the time series. The results of econometric modeling allowed to identify the main factors influencing the sale of the medicine drug. After that, short-term and long-term forecasting, based on the obtained results, was carried out. Taking into account that the projected results reproduced accurately enough the actual sales of the drug, it can be said that the used method can be applied to similar researches.
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