UPDATING THE ISSUE OF FORECASTING TRADE ENTERPRISES BANKRUPTCY RISK IN THE CONDITIONS OF CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
Abstract
Due to the coronavirus pandemic and the implementation of strict quarantine restrictions, the global economy has faced serious challenges that have increased the number of corporate bankrupts around the world. To survive on market under new conditions any enterprise should be able to promptly assess its risks of insolvency. In Ukraine the trade was one of the most affected areas of the domestic economy (nearly one-third of trade enterprises have gone bankrupt), that is why it is very crucial to find out an adequate model for assessing the bankruptcy risk of commercial enterprises. This article is devoted to the research of challenges and opportunities of trade enterprise insolvency assessment. The object of research is risk discriminant and logit models as an instrument of trade enterprise financial stability assessment, based on the financial indicators. The key research methods were used in the article: analysis of scientific literature and comparison method. In the study, in accordance with the aim, were analyzed foreign (Lithuania, Poland, Russia) and domestic models for assessing the level of bankruptcy risk of trade enterprises, discussed their advantages and disadvantages. Authors came to conclusion, that the most significant problem is the lack of attention to models that forecast the probability of trade enterprises bankruptcy. Moreover a lot of models does not include the indicators of receivables and payables, which can significantly affect the liquidity of the company. The authors also highlighted a number of specific features of trade enterprises, among them are: 1) significant amounts of receivables and payables; 2) food trade enterprises have a fast sales cycle and perishable goods, which significantly increases the risks of the enterprise; 3) stage of the life cycle of the enterprise; 4) a significant level of dependence of trading companies on demand, which decreases sharply in a crisis and causes significant fluctuations in corporate revenue; 5) availability of offline and online sales channels. All this features should serve as a basis for further research to improve approaches to assess the risk of bankruptcy of such companies.
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