DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN UKRAINE AS A FACTOR OF LABOR MARKET DEVELOPMENT
Abstract
In the context of the increasing adverse impact of external and internal factors on the development of the country such as the globalization of the economy, trade and labor market, the consequences of the fourth industrial revolution "Industry 4.0", the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic and the increasing socio-economic instability in the country, there is an increasing relevance of monitoring key factors of the effective functioning of the labor market in Ukraine, one of which is the state of the demographic situation in the country. Today the demographic situation in Ukraine is deteriorating every day, which is associated with economic, social and political problems in the country. First of all, the main problems are a significant increase in mortality and a low birth rate. But in addition to these problems, the growth of labor migration, the outflow of talented youth abroad, military operations in the east of the country, the annexation of Crimea, etc., are also significant. The purpose of the article is to analyze the dynamics of the main indicators of demographic processes in Ukraine and their forecasting based on the construction of a system-dynamic model. The article studies the demographic situation in Ukraine, analyzes the dynamics of the current population, including urban and rural. A study of the natural and migration growth of the population of Ukraine for 1990-2020 was carried out. The analysis of the distribution of the resident population by age groups in 2020 was made. The paper presents the results of modeling the average number of the available population of Ukraine using system-dynamic modeling. The forecasted values of the main demographic indicators for 2021-2022 have been determined: the average number of the available population in the regions of Ukraine and in the country as a whole, the growth rates of these parameters, the general rates of divorce and marriage, the general rates of migration and natural growth. Areas with the most problematic demographic situation are highlighted. A number of measures are proposed in the field of state regulation of the demographic situation aimed at increasing the population of the country.
References
Babiak H.P. (2014). Demohrafichni chynnyky ta yikh vplyv na vidtvorennia trudovoho potentsialu Ukrainy [Demographic factors and their impact on the reproduction of labor potential of Ukraine]. Sotsialno-trudovi vidnosyny: teoriia ta praktyka, № 1, pp. 362–366.
Stativka N.V., Smahliuk A.A. (2011). Demohrafichna skladova ekonomichnoi bezpeky Ukrainy [Demographic component of economic security of Ukraine]. Teoriia ta praktyka derzhavnoho upravlinnia, V. 1, pp. 280–287.
Mahdich A.S. (2015). Vplyv sotsialnykh faktoriv na ekonomichne zrostannia: vitchyznianyi aspekt [The influence of social factors on economic growth: the domestic aspect]. Ekonomichnyi nobelivskyi visnyk, № 1, pp. 68–78.
Plynokos D.D. (2015). Analiz vplyvu pryrodnoho ta mekhanichnoho rukhu naselennia na stan trudovykh resursiv [Analysis of the impact of natural and mechanical movement of the population on the state of labor resources]. Derzhava ta rehiony, №4(85), pp. 18–23.
Tsvihun I.A. (2013). Demohrafichna bezpeka Ukrainy ta napriamy yii rehuliuvannia: monohrafiia [Demographic security of Ukraine and directions of its regulation: monograph]. Kamianets-Podilskyi: Vydavets PP Zvoleiko D.H. (in Ukrainian).
Yakovenko T.V. (2014). Osoblyvosti suchasnoi demohrafichnoi kryzy v Ukraini [Features of the current demographic crisis in Ukraine]. Visnyk Kharkivskoho natsionalnoho universytetu imeni V.N. Karazina, № 1122, pp. 77–83.
State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Available at: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua (accessed 27 August 2020).
Europe: Quality of Life Index by Country 2019. Available at: https://www.numbeo.com/quality-of-life/rankings_by_country.jsp?title=2019®ion=150 (accessed 27 August 2020).
V Ukraini na 10 pratsiuiuchykh prypadaie 11 pensioneriv. Internet-Vydannia «Ekonomichna pravda». Available at: https://www.epravda.com.ua/news/2018/12/15/643625/ (accessed 27 August 2020).
Naselennia Ukrainy za 2018 rik (Demohrafichnyi shchorichnyk). Available at: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/druk/publicat/kat_u/2019/zb/12/zb_ukr_2018.pdf (accessed 27 August 2020).
Kramar O. Demohrafiia. Nedootsinena zahroza. Internet-Vydannia «Tyzhden UA». Available at: https://tyzhden.ua/Economics/233708 (accessed 27 August 2020).
