METHODOLOGICAL TOOLS FOR ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE ACTIVITIES OF AVIATION ENTERPRICES
Abstract
The article defines that macroeconomic factors are considered to be factors of indirect influence on the activities of airlines, consist of a system of factors that the company is unable to control. On the basis of which the author singles out the system of the main factors of macroeconomic influence on the functioning of enterprises and establishes favorable and unfavorable macroeconomic factors of their development. Based on the retrospective analysis, the author proposes to systematize the methods of assessing the impact of macroeconomic factors on the activities of airlines in the following three groups: methods of forecasting and modeling, methods of impact assessment and expert methods. It is proved that in the context of research problems the most appropriate methods of assessing the impact of macroeconomic factors on the activities of airlines should be considered expert methods that focus on expert (professional) research and identification of the most significant (both quantitative and qualitative) environmental factors that create sustainable meaningful context for airline management to make strategic decisions on sustainable development in competitive markets. In world practice, the most common are four methodological approaches to expert assessment of the impact of macroeconomic factors on the operation of the enterprise, which can be adapted to the development of airlines in competitive markets: the method of "four questions", method "5x5", SWOT-analysis, PEST-analysis. An in-depth study of modern expert methods made it possible to present the author's generalization of the stages of SWOT-analysis of the factors of internal and external environment of airlines. The result of scientific and theoretical generalization of literature sources was the author's model of step-by-step PEST-analysis of the impact of macroeconomic factors on the activities of airlines, which resulted in a formalized criterion assessment of the strength of factors of each group on the development of airlines in competitive markets. As a result of the ranking, it is concluded which group of factors is the most influential for the management of the airline in the current period and (if necessary) to predict the impact of these factors in the future.
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