METHODS OF ASSESSMENT OF EXPORT POTENTIAL OF STATE PRODUCERS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
Abstract
The article is devoted to the prognostic assessment of increasing the export potential of state agricultural producers. For its complex study, the calculation of indicators of using of this potential at the state level, namely: geographical and commodity structure of exports; level of export orientation; export per person; export quota; intra-industry trade index; Hirschman index, etc. A multi-indicator analysis of the export potential of agri-food markets allowed us to draw the following conclusions. Observing the export of food products in value form, we can say about their growth in 2018 for the following food groups: sugar and confectionery; finished grain products; various food products; residues and waste from the food industry, etc. The analysis of the geographical structure of agricultural exports shows that the largest volumes of such products in 2018, Ukraine exported to India (1856 million USD or 19,68 %), to China (1171 million USD, or 12,41 %), to the Netherlands (1158 million USD, or 12,28 %), to Spain (1040 million USD, or 11,03 %), etc. Thus, India today is the largest export market for Ukraine and the largest trading partner of Eastern Europe. Indicators of the level of export orientation showed that its level of almost all food groups of goods is still quite low. Only some food groups are characterized by a significant level of export orientation, in particular: grain and grain products, the level of export orientation of which increased by 25,0 % compared to 2010, as well as oil, which is characterized by an export orientation of 95,9% in 2018 However, a negative trend is the decrease of the above indicator for milk and dairy products by 0,5 % and fruits, berries and grapes – by 5,5 %. It was found that an important indicator for forecasting the export potential of the state food industry is the index of food export concentration, or Hirschman’s index. The results of the calculations show that the calculated concentration indices for 2010–2018 have, in our opinion, average values, which indicates the average structure of exports of state food products. It is proved that the Hirschman index is used in the analysis of export potential, taking into account the commodity structure of exports of food products.
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