ESTIMATE OF THE PROBABILITY OF BANKRUPTCY AS A METHOD FOR FORECASTING THE ENTERPRISE FINANCIAL CONDITION

Abstract

For any firm, the question of evaluating the financial situation of its organization is always relevant, the goal of which is to achieve high efficiency of production. Today, for economic entities in a market economy, there is the uncertainty of the economic environment, which in practice is expressed in financial risks, and in particular in the risk of bankruptcy. This, in turn, necessitates the introduction of methods that will address the problem of timely detection of bankruptcy risks and the prevention of the financial crisis. Typical for many enterprises is the problem of ineffective risk management, and most of them are delayed their identification, assessment and neutralization, the speed of detection and use of additional chances of improving performance. An equally important reason for the study was the economic and political instability in Ukraine in recent years, which has led to an aggravation of the crisis in the industrial sector of the economy. Consequently, the diagnosis of the probability of bankruptcy and solvency at the enterprise in order to develop and implement managerial decisions that will ensure the prevention of potential crisis phenomena is very relevant at present. Recently, the question of assessing the probability of bankruptcy and its consequences is paid much attention to both domestic and foreign scientists. The purpose of the article is to investigate the essence of bankruptcy and to find methods for detecting and forecasting the probability of bankruptcy at existing enterprises of Ukraine. The article deals with the essence of bankruptcy of enterprises, describes different approaches to forecasting the probability of bankruptcy. The necessity and importance of forecasting the financial condition and estimating the probability of bankruptcy are shown. The expediency of using models of estimating the probability of bankruptcy as a method of forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise on the example of JV "Breading Plant of Novgorod-Siversky District Consumer Union" was substantiated. As an example, the models of the Irkutsk Academy and the model of Tereschenko O.O.