INFLATION PROCESSES IN UKRAINE: PROBLEMS OF TODAY AND CAUSES

Abstract

Inflation as an important macroeconomic indicator must be constantly analyzed to determine the main economic trends occurring in the country. Such an analysis is especially important in recent periods, when the global coronavirus pandemic has lead the already precarious economic situation of the world into crisis. This inevitably affects the economic processes within Ukraine. The article presents the results of the previous period of inflation in Ukraine during 2019 and early 2020. Finding out about the status of the inflation and identifying the indicators, which affect it the most according to the most modern economical and home-grown circumstances were relevant. Statistical messages were used in the course. The results are obtained by using the methods of dynamics, a structural analysis and a comparative analysis of the result of calculations. According to the results of the analysis, it can be stated that the inflation index showed constant fluctuations during the last year. In addition, fluctuations in food prices with the beginning of quarantine in the country and rising prices for water supply, excisable goods, transport services have exacerbated the situation when it became impossible to make a forecast. And the loss of control over such sensitive processes to change, as we know, leads to an increase general economic risks, loss of opportunities to influence the ongoing economic processes. An important factor influencing the state of inflationary changes was the level of the hryvnia exchange rate against major world currencies. During the analyzed period, the hryvnia exchange rate was gradually decreasing. It was caused by panic in the world stock markets with the advent of the coronavirus, budgetary pressures within Ukraine, which continues to be filled with revenues on commodity sales as a key export. The study also compared the dynamics of inflation in Ukraine with different countries to determine the similarity of trends and, thus, understand the inflation in Ukraine more explicitly. It was found that Ukraine is similar to China in instability, but it shows the greatest similarity of Ukraine with Turkey in terms of inflation. The inflation rate in these countries during the analyzed period ranges from -0.6% to 2%, which is quite positive. They noted that, in contrast to developed countries, the Ukrainian authorities can easily increase adequate inflation indicators, but with negative consequences for economic stability, which may adversely affect economic recovery after the quarantine.