SUBSTANTIATION OF SELECTION OF INDICATORS FOR DIAGNOSTICS ОF THE FINANCIAL STATE OF ENTERPRISES AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF BANKRUPTCY

Abstract

The article is devoted to the rationale for the choice of financial indicators for the diagnosis of the financial condition of the enterprise and determine the probability of their bankruptcy. In the context of a long economic crisis, which affected almost all enterprises of Ukraine, the issue of early diagnosis of the financial condition of enterprises and determining the probability of their bankruptcy is relevant. The most well-known in our time models for diagnosing the financial condition of the enterprise and determining the probability of their bankruptcy are not fully adequate in the specific conditions of the domestic economy. Therefore, it is important to select the most important indicators and give them priority in the relevant model. The task of the work is to test the theoretical studies on the selection and prioritization of financial indicators, which are planned to be used in the future to build models for the diagnosis of the financial condition of enterprises. The test is to assess the priority through the study of empirical data by means of factor and correlation analysis and comparison of empirical data studies with previous results of prioritization of financial indicators by the method of analysis of hierarchies and with the involvement of experts. It is shown that for the diagnosis of selected financial indicators are to be studied for multicollinearity. The financial indicators of the enterprises selected for the study were subjected to statistical analysis. The factor and correlation analysis of financial indicators on the basis of studies of financial statements of enterprises, revealed a weak mutual influence of indicators, which indicates their optimal choice. Factor analysis revealed the contribution of each of the financial indicators to the overall result. The financial indicators involved in the study can be used in the future to build neural network and fuzzy-logical models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises. The research results can be aimed at building models for assessing the financial condition of the enterprise and the probability of their bankruptcy with the help of modern tools for modeling economic processes – fuzzy logic and neural networks – and checking the adequacy of the proposed models.