SCENARIO-DYNAMIC MODELLING OF ENTERPRISE ADAPTIVE DEVELOPMENT TRAJECTORIES IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32999/ksu2307-8030/2026-60-9Keywords:
adaptive development, digital transformation, scenario-dynamic modelling, development trajectory, economic and mathematical modelling, scenario riskAbstract
The article develops a scenario-dynamic approach to modelling enterprise adaptive development trajectories under digital, market, and resource disruptions. The proposed Adaptive Development Transition Model (ADTM) integrates multidimensional assessment of the enterprise’s economic state, probabilistic transitions between development regimes, cascading transmission of external impacts, and stochastic forecasting. The enterprise state is represented through interconnected financial, market, production, digital, innovation, and resource components. Their integration is performed using the nonlinear Adaptive Development State Index (ADSI), which accounts for structural proportions, cross-component interactions, and deviations of the actual configuration from the target state. The methodological approach distinguishes stable, adaptive, unstable, and critical development regimes. Transition probabilities between these regimes depend on the current enterprise state, external environment parameters, and the nature of cross-system responses. A cascading transmission mechanism is incorporated to represent both direct and secondary changes across functional components. The scenario module considers alternative combinations of digital, market, and resource impulses together with the stochastic nature of their occurrence. A system of interconnected indicators is proposed to provide a comprehensive assessment of projected trajectories. These indicators characterize the risk of adaptive trajectory failure, accumulated adaptation deficit, recovery duration, and integrated scenario risk. The modelling results demonstrate asymmetric responses of enterprise functional subsystems to external impulses. The effectiveness of digital transformation is found to depend on resource availability and the enterprise’s initial economic state. The developed approach provides an analytical framework for forecasting adaptive trajectories, identifying adverse scenario configurations, and substantiating managerial decisions aimed at maintaining enterprise development resilience.
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