EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION OF THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY OF WORLD LEADING COUNTRIES ON THE UKRAINE ECONOMY

Abstract

The relevance of the study of the spillover effects of the monetary policy of the leading countries of the world during their recovery from crisis or recession is explained by the strong dependence of small countries on the global economy, which not only forms the main current trends, but also determines the medium and long-term prospects. The study focuses on the need to analyze the problems associated with the cross-border effects of the monetary policy of the leading countries of the world for Ukraine, as well as for other countries with emerging markets. The article presents the VAR model, on the basis of which quantitative estimates of the impact of the monetary policy of the leading countries of the world on the economic dynamics, prices, hryvnia exchange rates in Ukraine are obtained. The model confirmed the impact on Ukraine's growth rate of price volatility on exported raw materials and goods, which are determined in global markets. The article presents an analysis and quantification of the Exchange rate Pass-through effect in Ukraine in the short and medium term; shows the role of changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar to the euro in the dynamics of domestic prices in Ukraine (consumer market prices and industrial producer prices). The use of multifactor regression model made it possible to confirm the presence of a statistically significant effect on the dynamics of the NBU key interest rate of changes in the US and European interest rates (US dollar LIBOR and European Euro LIBOR rates). The results of the empirical study confirm the significant dependence of the development of the Ukrainian economy on external factors of influence, in particular, on the external conditions on the commodity markets and the dynamics of the US dollar and euro exchange rates, US and EU interest rate policy, which have both positive and negative effects for financial stability and long-term development prospects of the country. Empirical studies are of direct practical importance, since they emphasize the importance of an effective economic structure and efficient monetary policy for positive economic dynamics and stability in Ukraine.